All five01AVAVQuality core02KTOSScaled attritable03AVEXProfitable converter04RCATPoR convexity05ONDSC-UAS platform
BOOK 01 · QUALITY CORE
AVAV AeroVironment
The only scaled U.S. tactical UAS + loitering-munition franchise with a funded $1.2B backlog and FY27 guide.
Core U.S. drone / UASPure-play 78Defense 92Core book
Core book. Size to funded backlog conversion, not to the 52-week high.
Research score
70
Scoring desk weights
Last Q revenue
$641.6M
+133% YoY
Backlog
$1.2B
disclosed
1m tape
-21.7%
1y -49.9%
-21.7%
Why it is in the five
- FY26 revenue $1.977B, funded backlog $1.2B, book-to-bill 1.4, FY27 guide $2.125–2.225B.
- Switchblade and Puma are combat-proven production, not a press-release prototype.
- Tape has already rerated: 52-week $417.86 → $148.20. Multiple reset is the setup; conversion is the test.
Why it can fail
- FY26 GAAP loss $265M including $241M goodwill impairment — BlueHalo accounting is live.
- DoD concentration and space-timing slippage already showed up in Q3.
- Still a premium sales multiple vs. primes even after the drawdown.
Model why
- Procurement validation is above the universe median.
- Pure-play score 78 — the P&L is actually about drones/C-UAS.
- Disclosed funded/reported backlog is material.
Model risks
- Dilution / issuance flags are on.
- DoD concentration
- Multiple