AVAV · NasdaqGS
AeroVironment
Tactical UAS, loitering munitions, DE / space (post-BlueHalo)
Research score
70
Adjust weights in Scoring
Last Q revenue
$641.6M
2026-04-30
Q YoY
+133%
Backlog
$1.2B
disclosed
Last print · Yahoo Finance spark (query1)
What it actually does
Sells small UAS and loitering munitions to the U.S. military and allies, plus services.
FY26 $1.98B is BlueHalo (1 May 2025) plus organic AxS — not a like-for-like organic double.
True drone company at the core; SCDE is adjacent defense-tech.
Largest U.S.-listed tactical UAS OEM; top DRNZ holding (13.58% as of 20 Aug 2026).
Buy-side thesis
Funded backlog $1.2B and FY26 book-to-bill 1.4 support FY27 $2.125–2.225B if conversion holds.
Switchblade / Puma remain among the few U.S. systems with combat-proven production.
52-week drawdown from $417.86 is the tape digesting mix, impairments, and a rerate.
Sell-side thesis
FY26 GAAP loss $265M including $241M goodwill impairment — acquisition accounting is live.
Unfunded awards are not sales. Q3 already showed space-timing slippage.
Still a premium sales multiple vs. many primes.
Financial quality
DoD delivery + services revenue. Higher quality than micro-caps.
Inorganic growth dominates FY26. Q3 organic +38% is the cleaner signal.
Earnings review
FY26 $1.98B vs original $1.9–2.0B after a mid-year trim.
Q4 AxS $492M beat StreetAccount ~$402M (CNBC, 29 Jun 2026).
Why the score / why it can break
Supports
- Procurement validation is above the universe median.
- Pure-play score 78 — the P&L is actually about drones/C-UAS.
- Disclosed funded/reported backlog is material.
Risks to the score
- Dilution / issuance flags are on.
- DoD concentration
- Multiple
Scenarios — not a price target
| Case | P | Revenue | Margins | Dilution | Multiple | Impl. cap / px |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| bear | 25% | FY27 ~$1.8B | adj. EBITDA <$250M | more deals | 3.0x sales | ~$5.4B / ~$106 |
| base | 50% | FY27 ~$2.175B | EBITDA ~$315M | stable | 4.0x sales | ~$8.7B / ~$171 |
| bull | 25% | FY27 >$2.4B | EBITDA >$360M | stable | 6.0x sales | ~$14.4B / ~$283 |
Implied prices are arithmetic from stated assumptions. They are not recommendations.