AVAV RESEARCH CARD · NOT ADVICE
AeroVironment
Core U.S. drone / UAS · NasdaqGS · px 117.52 · cap $6.0B · score 70
What it does
Sells small UAS and loitering munitions to the U.S. military and allies, plus services.
FY26 $1.98B is BlueHalo (1 May 2025) plus organic AxS — not a like-for-like organic double.
True drone company at the core; SCDE is adjacent defense-tech.
Bull
- Funded backlog $1.2B and FY26 book-to-bill 1.4 support FY27 $2.125–2.225B if conversion holds.
- Switchblade / Puma remain among the few U.S. systems with combat-proven production.
- 52-week drawdown from $417.86 is the tape digesting mix, impairments, and a rerate.
Bear
- FY26 GAAP loss $265M including $241M goodwill impairment — acquisition accounting is live.
- Unfunded awards are not sales. Q3 already showed space-timing slippage.
- Still a premium sales multiple vs. many primes.
Snapshot
Last Q $641.6M (+133% YoY) · GM n.d. · backlog $1.2B · cash n.d.
Funded $1.2B vs $726.6M YoY. FY26 bookings $2.7B, book-to-bill 1.4.
Score notes
Supports: Procurement validation is above the universe median. Pure-play score 78 — the P&L is actually about drones/C-UAS. Disclosed funded/reported backlog is material.
Risks: Dilution / issuance flags are on. DoD concentration Multiple
Educational research only. Not investment advice, a solicitation, or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any security. Datapoints are labeled disclosed, analyst judgment, or unable to verify. Contract ceilings, IDIQ vehicles, MOUs, and partnership announcements are not funded revenue.